09 January 2010

NBC's New Schedule May Be Conan's Decision

NY Times

The future of NBC’s plan to shake up its late-night television lineup may depend on just how much Conan O’Brien doesn’t like what the network has done to him.

A day after NBC executives said they were contemplating a plan to move Jay Leno back to 11:35 p.m., elbowing Mr. O’Brien back a half-hour to 12:05 a.m., representatives of Mr. O’Brien’s are privately saying that he has not accepted NBC’s plan and that he is likely not to agree to it any time in the near future. But none were willing to say so publicly.

The uncertainty has created an extraordinary spectacle: Two of NBC’s biggest stars, with an aggregate salary of more than $50 million a year, and their staffs are waiting to see what might happen, with no official word being issued from the network or any of its executives.

A senior executive at a rival network said that if Mr. O’Brien and his representatives were willing to walk away from money he may still be owed by NBC, “they’ll have options.” The executive spoke on the condition of anonymity because he wanted to avoid becoming involved in NBC’s dealings with Mr. O’Brien.

One option seems to be emerging for Mr. O’Brien. On Friday the Fox network began sending signals that it may have a home for Mr. O’Brien, should he decide that he would rather opt out of his lucrative contract at NBC — which pays him in the range of $20 million yearly — for a shot at a show that does not relegate him indefinitely behind Mr. Leno.

“We’ve always been interested in late night and we’re always looking to bring great new talent to Fox,” said a Fox employee who demanded anonymity because network employees were not authorized to speak on the record about the issue. “While Conan would be a great fit for Fox, he’s still under contract with NBC, so we’ll just see how all of this plays out.”

Several news organizations published similar anonymous comments from Fox on Friday afternoon.

A senior Fox executive amplified the network’s interest by saying that a late-night show has always been at least loosely on the network’s agenda.

“We love Conan,” the executive said.

The move to redirect Mr. Leno from prime time, where his new show has struggled since September, back to late night was fueled by complaints from NBC’s affiliated stations that they were seeing diminished ratings for their 11 o’clock local newscasts as a result of low lead-in audiences each night in the 10 o’clock hour.

NBC’s problems with “The Jay Leno Show” have also affected the ratings of “The Tonight Show With Conan O’Brien.” Mr. O’Brien averaged 2.8 million viewers at 11:35 p.m. from June through December, according to Nielsen, 1.5 million of whom were ages 18 to 49. In the television season that ended the month before Mr. O’Brien’s start, Mr. Leno averaged 5 million viewers at 11:35 p.m., 1.8 million of whom were 18 to 49.

Executives from most of NBC’s bigger station partners (and the chairman of its affiliate board) did not return phone calls or e-mail messages on Friday. The effect of Mr. Leno’s ratings also trickled down to local stations in smaller cities like Charleston, W. Va., where the NBC affiliate has seen the audience for its 11 p.m. newscast cut fully in half in the past year.

Viewers “just didn’t accept Leno at 10 o’clock,” said Don Ray, the vice president and general manager of WSAZ in Charleston. With Mr. Leno as a weaker lead-in, WSAZ’s 11 p.m. news received a 3 rating among 18- to 49-year-olds last November, down from a 6 rating for the same month last year.

As a result, “we make, in that 11 p.m. time slot, 60 percent of the money we used to make,” Mr. Ray said.

He added that he was excited about the potential move. “It’ll be good to have Leno back following our news instead of leading into our news,” he said.

Misgivings about Mr. Leno’s show deepened in December when local affiliates received ratings books for November — a so-called sweeps month, when ad rates for the next quarter of the year are set.

“I know that several affiliates talked to” NBC after that information arrived, said one station manager who would speak only on the condition of anonymity.

NBC had heralded Mr. Leno’s 10 p.m. show as transformational because it could be produced for far less money than expensive dramas that had been in that. hour. In September Jeff Zucker, the NBC Universal chief executive, said at an investors’ conference that the network would give Mr. Leno plenty of time to find his footing.



“We’re going to judge this on 52 weeks,” Mr. Zucker said.

Mr. Leno has been on at 10 p.m. for 17 weeks.

On Friday Mr. Ray noted that NBC was moving swiftly to correct what he said he believed was a misstep. “You’ve got to credit NBC for acting in a timely fashion,” he said.

NBC’s prime-time plan for Mr. Leno never won over some top advertising executives. Shari Anne Brill, a senior vice president at the Carat media agency, said she “questioned the decision” when it was made because it reminded her of “the early days of TV” when low-cost variety-comedy shows filled the schedules of the fledgling networks.

“It always smacked of cost saving and managing for margins,” Ms. Brill said.

John Rash, senior vice president and director of media analysis at the Campbell Mithun agency in Minneapolis, said in an e-mail message, “With a new-program failure rate approaching 90 percent plus in some seasons, it’s not a shock that ‘The Jay Leno Show’ — which was an unprecedented upending of the way prime time is programmed in the first place — didn’t work.”

Looking ahead, Ms. Brill said, “for me the big mystery is what is the plan for 10.”

NBC has almost no programming on its shelves ready to fill the 10 p.m. hour, leading many to suggest that the network would turn to multiple episodes of its news magazine “Dateline” and would be likely to reschedule the drama “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,” which had been a hit at 10 before being moved to 9 to make room for Mr. Leno.

Mr. Rash said “the blank canvas at 10” offered NBC “a challenge and opportunity to redefine its lineup.” If NBC can find the next generation of dramas, he said, “it stands a chance of bringing back viewers, and if it does, advertising investment will follow.”

Ms. Brill was less sanguine. “None of this is making sense to me,” she said, other than that Mr. Leno “does belong at 11:30.”

Referring to a character created by Johnny Carson, Mr. Leno’s predecessor on “The Tonight Show,” Ms. Brill said, “Only Carnac the Magnificent could make sense of this.”

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